But some Iranian officials say their nuclear program (which has made significant progress in uranium enrichment, despite the imposition of new sanctions) will not even be on the agenda. If so, the political arena and technology has changed a lot in the past year – evidence that the efforts of the United States had backfired, analysts say – that the hand of Iran’s most powerful to engage in these talks.
“While not set Iran to continue uranium enrichment, an independent policy, and when the United States is not in a position to launch a new war in the region, and time is against Washington,” says Kayhan Barzegar, a specialist in Iran at the Belfer Center of the Harvard University Science and International Affairs .
“Perhaps the Obama administration is now ready to start talks, but failed to reach a final decision yet because they are waiting to see the impact of tough sanctions against Iran,” says Mr. Barzegar, contacted in Tehran, where he also serves as Director at the Center for Strategic Studies in the Middle East. “This is the wrong policy, because the sanctions will not change Iran’s nuclear policy.”
Relevant to Iran: We can make uranium ‘yellowcake’ Now our
The talks in October 2009 an agreement in principle nuclear: Iran to export 1200 kilograms (. £ 2600) homemade low-enriched uranium (LEU) – the bulk of its stock at the time and enough theory to make one bomb if refined than 3, 5 percent to more than 90 percent. On the other hand, it receives 20 percent enriched nuclear fuel for small medical research reactor.
Iran has rejected in the end to the agreement, describing it as a ploy to deprive the Islamic Republic has the right in the fuel under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Even in February, Iran announced it had boosted levels of uranium to 20 percent, and fuel that would make the same.
In May, and got Brazil, Turkey, Iran to sign a virtual copy of the deal, backed by the United States in 2009 October But the agreement does not oblige Iran to suspend uranium enrichment altogether, as demanded by UN Security Council resolutions.
The United States rejected immediately as not far enough – and given that Iran has expanded enrichment – and the planned fourth round of UN sanctions issued in the next month.
The news reports that the U.S. is preparing for the “upgrade” to swap fuel 2009. Would require Iran to exporting 2000 kg of low-enriched uranium, to take into account the fact that Iran’s stockpile has grown to 2800 kg approx.
But what began has now shifted from confidence-building measures in the mix of motives interlaced Bank and the Iranian challenge, the complexity of the talks, which are about to begin.
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The United States believes it is Iran, “long” after Tehran made a number of concessions, says Ivanka Barzashka, a Researcher with the Federation of American Scientists in Washington.
While Iran has seen some technical problems – the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that all the centrifuges Iran from 8426 involved in the enrichment of low-and inactivity in the mid-November – it has also made progress in many areas.
“It’s easy if you’re sitting in the State Department says: ‘We are steamrolling these men,” says Ms. Barzashka. “But at the same time, Iran is pushing ahead with uranium enrichment by 20 percent. They pay with their manufacture its own fuel.”
If you limit the ability of Iran to obtain nuclear bomb is a source of concern, and diplomatic delays and the failure of Iran to secure the 20 fuel percent from any other source, “so far as Iran is a reason [to go] highly enriched, making it closer to the bomb,” she says.
“The sanctions do not defeat the nuclear clock, but 20 percent enrichment actually pay that [h] forward,” he adds Barzashka. Iran already has produced about 33 kilograms of high-grade materials, and if he was able to get the fuel, it would have no reason to enrich for this level.
Relevant to Iran: We can make uranium ‘yellowcake’ Now our
Iran denies it is seeking to get the bomb, and condition of the higher authorities that Islam forbids nuclear weapons. Repetitive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency did not result in any diversion of nuclear materials, despite the fact that the UN agency says that Iran does not cooperate fully so far to clarify the design issues the past.
It will be the new task for the negotiators to create confidence in a little present, amid tense statements. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina in November, and openly called for the extermination of the military to the Iranian regime, while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the West of “thinking as the aggressors,” he said, adding “We can not ban change the Iranian people.”
Few analysts believe that the sanctions, and U.S. policy toward Iran, the default for decades, will not change the calculus Tehran’s nuclear program.
“If the United States is serious [about] a diplomatic solution, it must recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its territory, to dispense and accept Iran to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf,” wrote Barzegar in the latest issue of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. “Iran, in turn, reciprocated by agreeing to stricter inspections by the IAEA of [explain] the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.”
In addition, the observer said that Iran’s stated desire to stop the enrichment of 20 percent if the United States show good faith and confirms that the nuclear talks need not be a zero-sum game in which benefits only one country.
“The nature of Iran’s nuclear program is of the kind that draw the United States and Iran to interact or engage in war,” he says. “In other words, it is either win the game or lose a game everyone, not winning and losing the game
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